Fact-checking the National Observer “Discount Frenzy” oil piece

On December 26th, 2018 the National Observer published an article Discount Frenzy: The dirt on discount oil by Wil Horter, the former Executive Director of the Dogwood Initiative. Given its subject matter, I read the piece and responded to Mr Horter online. Given the number of times this post reappeared on my social media feed; I thought a quick-take blog post would be a good way to respond. 

The report starts with a common error that Alberta heavy oils represent an inferior quality product. I have encountered this error so many times that I have already written a full post debunking this error. Activists seem to have this mistaken idea that for crude oil, light means good and heavy means bad. The truth is that they are different products with different markets and heavy crude oils are a highly desired product. As for the argument that heavier crude oil is more expensive to refine, In my blog post I point out that heavy crude, refined in a heavy crude refinery, gives higher margins and less waste than light crude refined in a light crude refinery. The heavy crude costs more to refine but recoups more per barrel, which results in higher returns…which is why it is so desirable.

The author then claims that the $10-$25 dollar discount between Alberta’s Western Canada Select (WCS) and Western Texas Intermediate (WTI a light crude) is due to a difference in quality. Anyone familiar with world oil prices knows that the difference between heavy and light crudes on the world market is almost always in the low dollar range one way or another. The trick is that the author uses the WCS (which is landlocked) for a comparison rather than a heavy crude that is not land-locked. Anyone familiar with oil pricing knows that Mexican crude Maya is the most comparable crude to WCS. They are both low API blends with about 5% sulfur. Looking at the Oilprices.com price chart we see that today (December 28th) the price of WTI was $45.33 while Maya for delivery to the US Gulf Coast was fetching $48.26 and for delivery to the US West Coast it was getting $48.01. If heavy crude is inferior why is it selling for more than light today? The difference in price is due to Alberta WCS being land-locked, plain and simple.

The next section of the article I want to debunk is the suggestion that the “Trans Mountain pipeline is no solution“. This represents a common argument made by the opponents of the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion (TMX): that if there was really a market for oil in Asia then surely we would be selling there already. This trope can be easily debunked just by looking at where all the fuel has been going. Dr. Andrew Leach from the University of Alberta looked at the NEB data for all the oil that ran through the pipeline for the last decade. Virtually every barrel that ran through the pipeline was grabbed for use in BC and the Puget Sound, there was very little left over to sell elsewhere.

As for the oil that did make it to Westridge Terminal, it was all gobbled up by the Californians. I pointed this fact out online and Mr. Horter claimed that recent history contradicted my claims. Funny thing, he apparently hasn’t been talking to Greenpeace which wrote an entire report bemoaning all the Alberta crude going to California. Not that the Chinese don’t want to get into the act they just have to deal with higher transportation costs. But wait, the article claims:

“there is no price premium in Asia. In fact, former CIBC Chief Economist Jeff Rubin concludes “heavy oil … typically trade at more than US$8 a barrel less, not more, in Asian markets compared to the prices Gulf Coast refineries pay.”

No surprises here, that factoid is also suspect. The challenge was trying to figure out where that factoid came from. In the article it links to a paper by Jeff Rubin an economist who some have argued should not be listened to on this topic. The original citation links the claim to another paper by Mr. Rubin. When you go to that paper you find that it isn’t really something Mr. Rubin generated, this self-citation hides the fact that he actually got the number from a report at the “Price of oil” website. Go to that report and you discover that the number is not a general one (as suggested in the National Observer piece), rather it is a one-time result from a Reuters story. A convoluted route via which a one-day output by Reuters becomes a “typical” case in a National Observer article. So what is the truth? Well according to Oil Price.com Maya sells at a discount to the Far East. Why does it sell at a discount in that market? Well that is because oil prices have to account for transportation costs.

Maya is derived from the Cantarell and Ku Maloob Zaap oil fields in the Gulf of Mexico. The nautical distance between the Port of Vera Cruz in Mexico to Shanghai China is almost 10,020 nautical miles. The two ports are almost as far apart as you can put two ports. This incredible distance results in much higher transportation costs which explains the lower price for that market.

Going back to the West Coast, the nautical distance from the Port of Vancouver to Shanghai is 5110 nautical miles. By halving the distance the price to transport the oil goes down and the price Albertan producers can get for it goes up. Remember earlier when I talked about all that crude going to California. The trip from Vancouver to San Francisco is only 812 nautical miles and the cost to ship a barrel of oil from Vancouver to San Francisco is only $4/barrel. Given that short trip (and low transportation costs) the Californians can outbid the Chinese for Alberta oil because their shipping costs are so much lower. Given the limited volume of Alberta oil available, the Californians are going to win the battle for the limited supply. Given the transportation cost differential, the fact that any oil is getting to China is a sign of how robust that market is for Alberta oil.

Finally, in the article Mr. Horter claims: “In fact, Trans Mountain frequently operates at less than full capacity and, despite a blip last month“. According to Trans Mountain the Trans Mountain pipeline is almost always oversubscribed. When asked for back-up for his claim Mr. Horter provided a link to a story about the Enbridge pipeline which presents an irrelevant link to a web search of the NEB web site. Nothing in the back-up appears to says what the referencing article suggests it does.

Author’s Note 1:

For another take here is Markham Hislop who further debunks Mr. Horter’s piece.

Author’s Note 2:

In re-reading the post, I can see the effect of being tired in some of the language I used. I have revised the text to reduce the friction of the article and stick to the facts.

This entry was posted in Canadian Politics, Pipelines, Trans Mountain, Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Fact-checking the National Observer “Discount Frenzy” oil piece

  1. Doug MacKenzie says:

    Dr. Rubin ? Really ?

    Like

  2. Pingback: On Wil Horter’s Gish Gallop about Alberta heavy oil and the Trans Mountain | A Chemist in Langley

  3. Ken Young says:

    Blair, thanks for this. I believe there is a typo in the 4th para. “if there was really a market for oil in Alberta then surely we would be selling there already.” and this should be “… in Asia…”

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.